28 February 2021 There's a whiff of inflation in the air: commodities are soaring, bond yields are rising, and yield curves are steepening. And, while these trends actually began last Summer (and despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's reassuring comments in Congress), equity market volatility is increasing. In the period ahead, financial markets will confront several [...]
Brazil: Riding the Commodity Wave?
18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the [...]
China: Becoming World’s Biggest Economy?
9 February 2021 China was the only major country to record economic growth in 2020, with GDP expanding 2.3%. Indeed, following three consecutive quarters of expansion, national output is already 6.5% above pre-Covid levels. As we approach Chinese New Year, the IMF optimistically projects 8.1% GDP growth during the year of the Ox. Likewise, I [...]
Biden’s Foreign Policy Reset: Market Impact
28 January 2021 Joe Biden is now the 46th President of the United States, and Anthony Blinken has been confirmed as the new Secretary of State. President Biden has promised substantive changes in American foreign policy, and initial Executive Orders indicate he will act on this pledge. To be sure, American international policy decisions are [...]